How it works
The signal for retiring sets isn’t borrowed from anywhere — it’s my own model. It combines data I collect from BrickLink every day with what I’ve learned from my own buying and selling: which sets really went up after retirement and which didn’t. The result is a score from 0 to 100. It is not a forecast of a specific price — it says how promising a set looks for growth after retirement, based on what has worked in the past.
What it is made of
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| How soon the set retires | 6–30 | Prices grow mostly after a set leaves the stores; retiring soon = a shorter wait. |
| Franchise | 5–25 | Star Wars, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Ninjago and large Icons resell best. |
| Liquidity | 2–20 | How many were sold on BrickLink in the last six months — there has to be demand. |
| Market vs. retail price | 4–15 | If a set already sells above retail, demand is strong. |
| 3-month trend | 0–10 | Direction of the median sold price. |
Bricks: 5 from 85 points, 4 from 72, 3 from 55, 2 from 40. Only a few percent of sets get five bricks.
Data
- Market prices — BrickLink price guide, sold items, Europe, last 6 months, median.
- Retirement — Brickset estimates. LEGO does not officially announce retirement dates, so it is always an estimate.
- Retail price — LEGO’s recommended retail price in the Czech Republic.
None of this is investment advice. Prices of collectible sets can also fall, especially when LEGO re-releases a set or replaces it with a newer version.